usually said so to emphasize that in football anything can happen. But no one think that Italy football team if they come back so soon from South Africa empty-handed. Yet the ball is round, everybody knows that. But we do not want to believe, Italy Calcium has many other traditions than to return home so soon. It 'a black swan? Yes and no. Yes, for those who just did not see or did not want to see that the team sucked, for lack of technical, people, luck, preparation, short of everything. No to those who saw these things. The swan turns black when the vast majority are blind to evidence or unwilling to admit that something can go wrong with a probability which is much higher than underestimated. Once again the story (the induction) and overstating its capabilities (also applies to the fans in a sort of collective transference) leads epistemic arrogance. He pretends to know. And the proof of the facts rather proves the contrary. Then, with hindsight, everything makes sense, so the coach takes all the faults up to 90 minutes were not faults but wise choices. Later, however, everything makes sense. Only later, unfortunately. So Roubini, the magician of the economy since 2006 had provided everything goes to say that there are no blacks swans, without understanding that is not enough that one has not provided to avoid the disaster. We must provide for it, but that many especially take this into account in the decisions that count. If he, good economist, has acquired credibility because it explode before the crisis had said. But nobody was listening so its forecasts were words in the wind. As one of the commissioners of approximately 60 million Italian technicians someone had something to say on the national level. Yes, okay, but not enough.
