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Cygnus atratus

common opinion, regarding the origin of scientific generalizations, is that these are based on a process of induction from observable data. We are told that populations of the northern hemisphere comes to the generalization "all swans are white ', for a process of induction - all the swans had ever seen were white, before they discovered Australia and blacks swans denies the generalization that does not goes better with experience. The first time you see a swan in England, observed that has a long neck and so on, and you learn that his name is swan. In all this there is no induction. He claimed that all swans are like the very first experience. Now we classify the species with anatomical criteria and not the color. To say that all swans have long necks is a circular definition, because if this creature had a long neck would not have been classified as a swan. If you put the case, they were called White Bird, would have sounded bad to say the white bird blacks, and those of Australia would have a different name.

Joan Robinson, Ideology and Economic Science, p.58, New Library Sansoni, 1977.

Start with a quote from Joan Robinson, to speak of the now famous Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, may seem unorthodox, but in the spirit of this blog. The Black Swan Reloaded is a re-reading the book that refer back to Taleb a few months after it quickly and voraciously read in two days and one night. At the time, in October 2008, I was literally struck by the intensity, originality and the pervasiveness of Taleb's ideas. I was so impressed by his ideas, and so I agree that I flew on the pages, taking for granted many things that I felt like I had always known and experienced as he was describing. The book had been the most sold by Amazon in 2007, and yet, in September 2008, the investment bank Lehman Brothers was unexpectedly failure giving way to the disastrous financial and economic crisis which is still reeling (and fumbling for some time to come). What is the link between the two? The failure of Lehman Brother is a Black Swan, as defined by Taleb, an event highly unlikely (just look at the assessments of rating agencies who had not seen the slightest default event for LB, and have officially downgraded the bank to D only declared in default), an event with a huge impact (positive or disastrous, in this case we know how it went) back to an event that is fully justified and explained as if to make it, in fact, in retrospect, predictable.
Why read the Black Swan? Taleb's book, is actually a substantial analysis of the epistemological limits we face every day to analyze the reality and make decisions in economic, financial, political, etc. The main accusation that Taleb makes the current system of ideas (often referred to finance and economics, areas that he knows well, but not too indirectly in the contemporary philosophy) is claiming to be able to dominate the reality and be able to afford to neglect some parts, believed, wrongly, irrelevant. Rereading
Taleb can find other important authors (Robinson is one of them) and see the history of economic thought (not only) in a perspective different from the usual passing the convent of the Academy Journal.
notes on this blog are my own personal path around the ideas expressed by Taleb and an invitation to read the book (to learn more about Black Swan click here.)

Image courtesy of CC-licensed by Jean-Pol Grandmont