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epistemic arrogance

epistemic arrogance Taleb talks about the second part, describing it as "arrogance about the limits of our knowledge." It argues that the more we know more about our arrogance prevents us from seeing the rare events. For various reasons. The first is the false sense of security that gives more information: security is more than proportional to the actual usefulness of the information that we are driven to be more daring with no real awareness of the choices we make. In addition, we have more data and more hypotheses are formulated on the route of data assimilation. In reality, more data means more information, but often more random noise. We are also influenced by the sensational that we tend to give more weight to things glamorous, perhaps unique, but less striking than the things that happen with some regularity. Finally, we are inclined to consider an event that occurs on average every 10 years as a unique event, when in fact, waiting a while ', will be repeated.
epistemic arrogance and plumb the length and breadth of this part of the book, which, among other things, is full of many juicy anecdotes. Some considerations on the sidelines hoping to do a story me want to read the book:

"When you are an employee, that it is dependent on the others, look busy can help you claim responsibility for the results obtained in a random environment. This appearance strengthens the perception of causality, the link between results and the role of the person who got you. This, of course, applies even more to the CEOs of large companies that need to trumpet a link between their 'presence' and 'leadership and business results. I do not know no studies that demonstrate the utility of the time that these people invest in the assimilation of information in conversations or trivial, and besides, not many authors have had the guts to question the importance of the role of the managing director in the company's success. "

Thinking about the controversy in recent months the salaries of top management's definitely worth taking.