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The white swan, black swan

I just finished reading the latest book by Roubini . E 'total clear and straightforward, understandable to most, with some digression technique that could also tired, but that is not essential to understanding the whole.
For more than 200 pages analyzing in detail the requirements and the logical connections that have allowed and caused the events of the last three years, then proceed with the economic policy proposals designed to prevent what has happened will happen again and then close with the outlook for the next adventure. Apart from some oversight
(Turkey is in NATO for over 50 years and is a candidate to become parties, as claimed on p. 340) also takes some sensational our crab.
argues that crises are "white swans", or predictable events, as opposed to the theory of Nassim Nicholas Taleb made in the now famous Black Swan, published back in 2007 (as the times seem distant pre - Lehman Bros). In reality, he is shown not to have read Taleb. Indeed Roubini himself has been the victim of what Taleb calls blindness swans to blacks, when, unheard, in 2006, said clearly, from the podium of the International Monetary Fund that the crisis was imminent, earning the title of Doctor Doom (Dr. bad luck, to be clear), but failing to have any influence on the policies that perhaps could still be put in place to limit the effects dell'immininente crisis. Not just one or two or a few economists have seen well to avoid the crisis: we need to be heard and implement remedies. What is a subjectively White Swan, Black Swan can be objectively Moreover Taleb explains it well here , which for 12 years it was saying that there was excessive risk taking: " To me a banking crisis - worse Than What We Have ever seen - was unavoidable and NOT A BLACK SWAN, just as a drunk and incompetent pilot Would Eventually the plane crash. And I Kept receiving insults for 12 years ! " [To me a banking crisis - the worst ever seen - was unavoidable and NOT A BLACK SWAN, as well as a drunk and incompetent pilot would eventually crash-landed the plane. And I kept receiving insults for 12 years! "] Obviously Roubini ignores these positions Taleb.
However, it is a book that deserves to be read, along with many others who have spoken about the crisis, Roubini but fails to write a theory of crisis, as demanded in the introduction, p. 15:
"The modest ambition of this book is to answer such questions [summarized in avoiding future crises] placing in the context of other recent crises have occurred in past ages all over the world. After all, the experience of recent years corresponds to a pattern known and oldest ages. The crisis systematic follow trajectories, producing predictable results, they are much more frequent and understandable than the prevailing view would not lead to believe. On the following pages we move between past and present for reveal how the above questions have already been made and have received a reply in response to previous crises.
along the road and some economic concepts that generate fear and are often misunderstood: moral risk, leverage, bank run, capital arbitrage, current account deficit, securitization, deflation, credit derivatives and liquidity trap, to name a few. "
It 'book important for understanding contemporary economics but to write a satisfactory theory of the crisis there asks for more.